AS 339 · AUS → SEA

departs 7:07 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 339 · AUS → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?