AS 379 · BWI → SEA

departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 379 · BWI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?