Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 389 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 389 · BOS → SAN

departs 4:33 PM ET · arrives 7:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 389 · BOS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?