AS 391 · YYZ → SEA

departs 4:55 PM EDT · arrives 7:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 391 · YYZ → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?