Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 400 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 400 · SBA → SEA

departs 7:28 PM PT · arrives 10:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 400 · SBA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?