AS 401 · PHX → SEA

departs 4:13 PM MT · arrives 7:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 401 · PHX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?