AS 413 · PDX → SNA

departs 7:38 PM PT · arrives 10:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 413 · PDX → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?