AS 428 · SEA → LGB

departs 6:15 PM PT · arrives 8:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 428 · SEA → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?