AS 451 · CVG → SEA

departs 6:38 PM ET · arrives 8:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 451 · CVG → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?