Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 464 LANDED 6:58 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 464 · SEA → ATL

took off 11:52 PM PT · landed 6:58 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ 12am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 464 · SEA → ATL

Odds over time