Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 466 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 466 · ANC → FAI

departs 10:17 AM AKT · arrives 11:21 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ 10am departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.16 in

FAI (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 466 · ANC → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?