Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 477 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 477 · SEA → EWR

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 6:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 477 · SEA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?