Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 479 LANDED 9:40 AM HT, ~19 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 479 · PDX → OGG

took off 7:30 AM PT · landed 9:40 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 479 · PDX → OGG

Odds over time