AS 485 · SEA → DFW

departs 1:48 PM PT · arrives 7:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 485 · SEA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?