AS 492 · SEA → LAX

departs 5:10 PM PT · arrives 7:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 492 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?