Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 49 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 49 · ANC → HNL

departs 4:00 PM AKT · arrives 8:05 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ANC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.16 in

HNL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 49 · ANC → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?