AS 501 · SEA → MCI

took off 8:32 AM PT · landed 1:26 PM CT (scheduled 8:08 AM PT → 1:33 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,620 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 501 · SEA → MCI

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCI?