Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 515SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AS 515 · PAE → PHX
departs 2:52 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
17%chance · ±2 pts+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.