AS 579 · ORD → SEA

departs 1:01 PM CT · arrives 3:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 579 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?