AS 608 · SAN → SEA

took off 7:16 AM PT · expected to land 9:36 AM PT (scheduled 7:15 AM PT → 10:10 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 608 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?