Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 643 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:57 AM ET, ETA 11:12 AM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 643 · EWR → PDX

took off 8:57 AM ET · expected to land 11:12 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 643 · EWR → PDX

Odds over time