Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 651 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 651 · SIT → SEA

departs 7:00 AM AKDT · arrives 10:24 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SIT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.01 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 651 · SIT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?