AS 653 · BWI → PDX

departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 653 · BWI → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?