AS 7004 · KTN → SIT

departs 4:24 PM AKDT · arrives 5:32 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at KTN that day

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into SIT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

KTN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.26 in

SIT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7004 · KTN → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?