AS 7004 · SIT → JNU

departs 6:46 PM AKDT · arrives 7:38 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 6pm departures from SIT are usually not late

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SIT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.11 in

JNU (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7004 · SIT → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?