Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 709 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:32 AM PT, ETA 8:52 AM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 709 · SAN → SEA

took off 6:32 AM PT · expected to land 8:52 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 709 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time