Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 732 LANDED 9:24 AM MT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AS 732 · PAE → PHX

took off 7:03 AM PT · landed 9:24 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ 7am departures from PAE are usually not late

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 732 · PAE → PHX

Odds over time