Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 736 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AS 736 · SEA → RNO

departs 8:52 PM PT · arrives 10:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into RNO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 736 · SEA → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?