AS 747 · ANC → AKN

departs 3:57 PM AKT · arrives 5:15 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at AKN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AKN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into AKN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

AKN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 747 · ANC → AKN

Odds over time

How late will it get to AKN?