AS 765 · SEA → SAN

departs 2:19 PM PT · arrives 4:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 765 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?