AS 775 · PDX → ANC

took off 10:46 AM PT · expected to land 1:18 PM AKT (scheduled 10:30 AM PT → 1:22 PM AKT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ANC?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ 10am departures from PDX are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 775 · PDX → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?