AS 804 · HNL → LAX

departs 8:39 PM HT · arrives 5:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.29 in

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 804 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?