AS 808 · HNL → LAS

departs 11:20 PM HT · arrives 8:03 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.26 in

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 808 · HNL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?