AS 809 · LAX → HNL

departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 8:53 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 809 · LAX → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?