AS 810 · HNL → LAX

departs 8:00 AM HT · arrives 4:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.43 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 810 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?