Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 812 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

AS 812 · HNL → SFO

took off 1:01 PM HT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 12:20 PM HT → 8:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 812 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?