AS 814 · HNL → PDX

took off 1:45 PM HT · expected to land 9:40 PM PT (scheduled 12:22 PM HT → 8:50 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
70%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 814 · HNL → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?