AS 822 · HNL → SEA

departs 12:50 PM HT · arrives 9:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.43 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 822 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?