Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 839 · HNL → SEA

departs 10:10 AM HT · arrives 6:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 2.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ 10am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.68 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 839 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?