Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 86 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AS 86 · ANC → SCC

took off 3:39 PM AKT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 3:36 PM AKT → 5:21 PM AKT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SCC more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SCC?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SCC that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into SCC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.56 in

SCC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 86 · ANC → SCC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SCC?