Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 870 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

took off 12:58 PM HT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 12:25 PM HT → 8:46 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LGB that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

LGB (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?