Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 90 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 90 · HNL → SEA

departs 3:07 PM HT · arrives 11:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 90 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?