Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9480 LANDED 11:47 AM HT, ~8 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AS 9480 · HNL → HNL

took off 11:07 AM HT · landed 11:47 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

HNL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9480 · HNL → HNL

Odds over time