Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 955 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AS 955 · SJC → LIH

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:33 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 955 · SJC → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?