Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 966 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 966 · KOA → SMF

departs 12:51 PM HT · arrives 8:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ 12pm departures from KOA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 966 · KOA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?