B6 348 · LAS → JFK

departs 2:21 PM PT · arrives 10:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,714 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 348 · LAS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?