Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
B6 404 · SJU → RDU
departs 3:22 PM AT · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 50%
Mon 10/5 34%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from SJU are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.