Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
B6 438 · MCO → BDL
departs 4:07 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 15%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3 38%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BDL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.