Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
B6 485 · ROC → JFK
departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 1:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.