Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
B6 816 · SFO → JFK
departs 11:50 PM PT · arrives 8:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 27%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
11pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.